Coronavirus

[Brad Pittiful]

we all are connected by this virus...it most likely is in every country our members are in...you can check this link im going to post to see how many are infected total...how many in any country...the country youre in...depending on how your country id segmented...mine has counties

sadly there was a confirmed person in my country and they are about 5 miles from me...here is the link

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Squid]

we all are connected by this virus...it most likely is in every country our members are in...

Looks that way. Several cases in the United States, but none in Michigan yet. The US Department of State is urging people to reconsider traveling to Italy and South Korea, and not travel to China at all. Stay safe, all.

[Idris]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

That's a great link, and is the one I've been using to keep track of the disease's development.
As I'm sure we're all aware, the situation has gone from being interesting to being worrying, and I think this is the first real pandemic since Spanish Flu at the end of the First World War. However, there's a lot of hype and misinformation being spread, and i would encourage all Members to read this article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -reassured.

[Idris]

UK tracking tool here, explanatory notes here.

[Squid]

There's a lot of hype and misinformation being spread...

Just how fast said hype and misinformation spreads in the modern world is somewhat disconcerting to me. Nightly news broadcasts here in the States give the issue considerable coverage, and of course, it is a hotly discussed topic all around the Internet, and in other media as well.

Reactions to it have--in my opinion--been overly cautious, on the verge of outright paranoia. Schools closed down, "sporting events" cancelled, executive orders forbidding gatherings in excess of X people issued. Certain consumer goods are in short supply. Today I went to the VA hospital, and instead of shuffling through the main entrance as per usual, I had to go in through a door in the parking garage. I was asked if I had any symptoms and/or had traveled outside of Michigan in the past two weeks.

There are three take-aways from all of this. One, the survivability rate is high. Two, spread of the virus can be mitigated, if not outright stopped, by doing things that one should do anyway. Three, though this is the greatest pandemic since the end of World War I, I don't believe it will be nearly as severe. I hardly feel that the severity of the virus warrants the extreme measures taken to curtail it.

And finally, I question the accuracy of the map. Cases in Ontario seem to have been removed, and it has not been updated to show the recently confirmed cases in Michigan.

[Idris]

I hardly feel that the severity of the virus warrants the extreme measures taken to curtail it.

I made exactly the same point in a conversation with someone today. The clever money is on a mortality rate of around 1%. Obviously it's very sad for that 1% and for their nearest and dearest, but does that level of mortality really warrant such a complete dislocation of society? If so, what on Earth will we do when a real killer pandemic (i.e. something akin to Spanish Flu with a mortality rate of between 15 and 20%, or even the Black Death which probably killed between a third and a half of Europe's population over the course of the fourteenth century) occurs, as it inevitably will one day?

[Squid]

That is good food for thought: just what would happen if humanity faced pandemic on the level of Spanish flu or bubonic plague? I honestly have no idea. But with such a low mortality rate, and medical and research professionals actively combating COVID-19, the hype around it is getting a little crazy. Just keep the face and hands clean, disinfect and clean living spaces, keep some space between yourself and unfamiliar persons, and look after the elderly and those with preexisting conditions. As I said befoe, humans should be doing those things anyway.

[motorman]

At 54 years of age and with some underlying health conditions I am very concerned about my own health, so if I stop posting here on VBD assume the worst, and as far as my collection Is concerned you can all sod off as I have left it in its entirety to the cats protection league Hugh will be delighted

[Idris]

Alex, first of all, on behalf of the UK's cat population, thank you very much.
"Underlying health problems" is an interesting phrase but, having read many newspaper reports over the last couple of months, it does seem as if all the virus is doing is giving already extremely ill people a final nudge (and my apologies to all if that sounds callous), with evidence of the viral infection only becoming apparent during the subsequent post-mortem. We should also remember than the current mortality figure is based largely on China, where there is a completely different standard (and style) of living, and of healthcare. Given the fact that most Chinese males smoke like chimneys and the chronic air pollution (I know because I worked on the outskirts of Shanghai for six months), infected people are already battling with damaged, poorly-functioning lungs. Add a disease which impairs lung function even further, and it is hardly surprising that a number of those infected die. In fact, it could be argued that the surprise is that it's only 1%
It was patently obvious from about the second week of January that the Chinese had dropped the ball and that the genie was well and truly out of the bottle. Covid-19 is a lot more easily transmitted than SARS and that it why it has proved impossible to stop. I have no doubt whatsoever that it will become endemic in humans. On the plus side, there is no evidence that the virus mutates (as flu does), but it would seem that at least two people have caught it twice, suggesting that the virus can either lie dormant (like malaria) or that resistance decreases over time. We should also not ignore the fact that it has taken eight weeks of draconian measures to bring the outbreak in Wuhan under control. Given that, what hope that we can do anything meaningful in "the free West" to halt the virus's progress?
One final point, and that is that my niece has been in hospital with breathing difficulties and chest pains. Obviously the concern is that she has Covid-19, and she has therefore been tested. However, although the test should take either 24 or 48 hours (reports differ), she will actually get her results in five to six days! The conclusion has to be that the NHS laboratory is already swamped and the system is buckling under the strain, even though infections are running at a comparatively low level.
To end on a positive note, the mortality figure coming out of China is about 1% However, we need to factor in the health of the average Chinese, the air pollution in China, the state of their healthcare system, and the proportion of infections which go unreported. So 1% in China way well equate to less than 0.5% in the West.

[GHOSTHUNTER]

''...and as far as my collection Is concerned you can all sod off as I have left it in its entirety to the cats protection league''

Right, my new job application for chief commissioner of the cats protection league has just been posted.

Ghosty.