Beales Bealson Production Numbers

[Idris]

As regards rare models, my rules of thumb are a survival rate of 10 - 15% (I can't remember what the source of this is, but I read it somewhere) and the fact that, for every model we know about, there's one in a sleeper collection. So, if we know of six example of a particular model, that means there are probably actually twelve still extant, meaning the total production was somewhere between 80 and 120 examples. Since Lesney would probably have worked in dozens (certainly in the RW era), that means between 7 and 10 dozen were produced.

Although the above yields (what I consider to be) sensible results for rare models, it seems to break down for the 46b Beales Bealsons pantechnicon.
Production is supposed to have been just 3,000 models, the source for this number being an article many, many years ago in Scale Models magazine. Using my rules of thumb, this gives a survival of between 300 and 450 models. Halve that for those tucked away in sleeper collections and that gives 150 to 225 'visible' models (i.e. those known to be in collections plus those for sale on the open market). However, there always seem to be a handful for sale on Ebay and, having just checked, I see that, looking at what's on offer currently and what's recently been sold, there are eight in total (a low figure compared to previous checks I have made), i.e. about 5% of the visible models. I think the sold listings on Ebay go back two calendar months, so that means that 30% of the visible models change hands every year - which is quite patently absurd.
I'm reasonably confident in my rules of thumb, so that means that the production figure must be wrong. Could it have been a typo? Was it perhaps 30,000 instead of 3,000? The former makes much more sense in terms of what we see go past on Ebay. Not only that, but it strikes me that 3,000 models doesn't go very far if you've even a small chain of department stores.

[GHOSTHUNTER]

It is always debateable if Lesney would actually set up just for low production quantites such as 3,000 and without prior figures from Hugh's findings I would have been happy with a c30,000 quantity of a single model which is still low compared to a full production run of many more Thousands than that.

Maybe that 3,000 figure was for an immediate Bealson promotion taken from the full run.

Ghosthunter.

[Idris]

It is always debateable if Lesney would actually set up just for low production quantites such as 3,000...

It is important to remember that Lesney did not actually do any production for the Beales. The story is that Lesney simply shipped out the bare bodyshells with a matching number of (presumably pre-wheeled) baseplates and plastic roller shutters..

[GHOSTHUNTER]

I was not aware of that so do we know who did assemble the models because if these were outsourced then a low number of units is prefereable than a high number of units.

Ghosthunter.

[DrJeep]

I agree that the Beales Bealsons isn't particularly rare - as you say, there are always several on eBay. If they're in poor condition they seem to hang around for ages, even at low prices, which might imply that everyone who wants one already has a better one.

When this was discussed previously, Dick (Kwakers) said

many other early veteran U.K. collectors were known to have shipped or swapped the Beales Bealsons into the U.S. for our eagerly awaiting collector base here in the early 70s. The Beales were never Toys to those early U.K. collectors, they were just like the original first series Lesneys we still found in U.S. displays that were bought, traded, and hoarded by our family from late 1964 on.
Fred Bronner's N.J. based 'Matchbox Collectors Club' broke the 5000 member mark in 1970. 4000 of the members may have been kids with 125 or less models in their collections, but at least 1000 of us were serious 'adult' collectors willing to pay $50 (1970 U.S. $$) for that type of Mint and boxed promotional Lesney which was only released in England. The Beales was a 'Holy Grail' right from the time any collector learned it existed in that 'custom' labeled white box,

In other words, he suggested that there is a higher than normal survival rate because many went straight to collections. Could it have been as many as 1000 going straight to the USA? I wonder how these early collectors would have put their hands on that many, though I suppose they were just on sale in the Bournemouth department stores that they celebrate (Beales Bealeson was not a removals company like Pickfords, so probably never actually had any of these pantechnicons).

It's also clear that many were played with - my two, for example, which I think are real. They came in the same lot but had no provenance:

Beales Bealson

IMG_7298 (1).jpg (216.21 KiB) Viewed 2577 times

Perhaps we should work out how many we have between us? If we compared numbers to something equally distinctive and desirable (green Cadillac?), we might get at least an idea of how relatively common they are. I've got these two (and three green Cadillacs).

[Idris]

Yes, I remember the higher-than-normal survival rate argument, but it's one which I feel doesn't stand up to close scrutiny. After all, we're looking at a promotional model given away by a chain of provincial department stores on the South coast of England, not in London. I would suggest that I) there were fewer serious collectors in those days, and ii) they were more poorly networked (no internet, only snail mail). Whilst some models might have been saved from being played with by astute local collectors, I'm not convinced that the impact would have been significant.
Look at it this way, even if the number of models surviving is doubled, we are still looking at 15% (ca. 1 in 6,1 in 7) of the visible stock appearing on Ebay on an annual basis. To me, that is still not credible. The numbers still don't stack up.
We should also believe that, contrary to what Mick Bruce ("SMS88") would have us believe, that number of 3,000 models is not written in stone. It comes from a single source and, as we know, people can (and do) make mistakes.

[DrJeep]

...it's one which I feel doesn't stand up to close scrutiny. After all, we're looking at a promotional model given away by a chain of provincial department stores on the South coast of England, not in London. I would suggest that I) there were fewer serious collectors in those days, and ii) they were more poorly networked (no internet, only snail mail). Whilst some models might have been saved from being played with by astute local collectors, I'm not convinced that the impact would have been significant.

I agree - though I do think the current survival rate must be higher than normal. Put another way, if my example without back wheels were green or blue, it would be in a box of beaters and not in a picture here.

I agree that there must have been more than 3000. I wonder how many a provincial department store would have ordered? Do we know whether they were sold or given away in some sort of promotion ("spend £x anywhere in the store and get a free delivery van")? 30,000 does sound a lot, but one should always be wary of arguments from incredulity, so I'm happy to accept it as the best estimate we have.

[GHOSTHUNTER]

Found this on John Houghton's website...
http://www.mokolesneymatchbox.com/fakes ... leson.html

Ghosthunter.

[Idris]

Found this on John Houghton's website...
http://www.mokolesneymatchbox.com/fakes ... leson.html

Ghosthunter.

Thanks for posing the link, Ghosty. I'd completely forgotten about that page. The notes on spotting a fake are extremely good and well worth bearing in mind if you're in the market for one of these.
Once again, the figure of 3,000 models is bandied about, but no source is given. The earliest reference I know of was the article in Scale Models and I assume that the figure has simply been remembered and passed on/handed down through the years, Houghton's page being such an example.

[Idris]

Putting this query into some kind of perspective, although I could find eight Beales-Bealsons on Ebay (see above), I could only find five two-line Pickfords.